At a week from the elections, Medina has a five point advantage
Diario Libre
SANTO DOMINGO. Going into the last week of the campaign, Danilo Medina, the candidate of the Dominican Liberation Party, emerges with a margin of five points over former President Hipolito Mejia, the candidate of the Dominican Revolutionary Party.
The last poll carried out by the Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner, for Diario Libre, gives Medina a slight majority of 51% of the votes, five points above Mejia who obtains 46% of the total.
Among Dominicans most inclined to vote, (72% of the total), both candidates go up in the preference of the voters, with 52% for Medina and 47% for Mejia.
Nevertheless, Medina still does not have a sure victory in the first round. Nearly 10% of the electorate could still change their vote and the data of the poll indicates that young women will play an important role in the decision of who will be the next president. IF the was to be a second round, the voting looks identical to the first round, given that the majority of the parties have endorsed the PRD and the PLD candidates.
The gender gap
The race is marked by a significant gender gap between the PLD and the PRD. Medina has an advantage of 18 points among women while Mejia has an 8 point among the men. Median is stronger among Dominican who are better educated, earning the vote of the university graduates by 16 points. Among those with primary and secondary education the vote is statistically a tie.
Geographical differences
Geographically, Medina is ahead in all of the regions, with the exception of the North, where Mejia is based and where the PRD leads 53 to 45%.
The support by Fernandez
The data from the poll suggests that Danilo Medina has been capable of capitalizing on the sustained support by the current President of the Dominican Republic, Leonel Fernandez, whose favorable rating has grown four points since the last Greenberg-Diario Libre poll carried out in March, and his approval rating is now 66%. Among the current voters for Medina, a majority-50%--say that the best reason for supporting Medina is that he will continue the good works of Fernandez.
But Medina has also improves his own grades. A plurality of Dominicans give the PLD candidate a favorable rating (47%), four points better than in March, and more voters think Medina will do a better job handling specific jobs. A majority-53%--say that Medina will do a better job handling the economy, an increase of 5% since the last Greenberg-Diario Libre poll and nine points higher than the percentage that says that Mejia will do a better job with the economy.
Margarita Factor
A large part of Medina's growth has been pushed by young women. In fact, women less than 35 years of age have emerged as a key group in this struggle. At the end of March, young women gave Mejia an advantage of 10 points, but five weeks later this vote has changed strongly in favor of Medina, once again reaching the levels of early March. The vote among young men, as well as that over 35 has remained stable.
The running mate on Medina's ticket, Margarita Cedeño de Fernandez has helped attract young women once again to the PLD. Cedeño de Fernandez has a higher approval rating than either of the two presidential candidates, with a majority of 54% giving her a favorable rating. Among the much desired young women's vote, a robust 64% give the First Lady a favorable rating, 15% higher than Leonel Fernandez and Danilo Medina and 31 points higher than Hipolito Mejia.
The last week counts
Danilo Medina has a five point advantage in the presidential race, but the way in which the candidates close their campaigns can have an effect on the final results.
Eight percent of the electorate reports that they could still change their vote. Medina is positioned to win those that can change their vote: a majority of them are Mejia supporters (55%), while only 33% of the PLD candidate's supporters might change.
Nevertheless, Mejia could court those voters with a strong message of change, particularly focused on the issue of security. Nearly three-quarters of the voters want change, feel pessimistic regarding the direction the country is taking (73% say the Dominican Republic is going in the wrong direction, compared with 49% of the total voters) and they are significantly more worried over crime than the electorate in general (60% says that it is one of their two major worries, compared to 55% of the electorate in general). Among those that might change their vote, Mejia has an advantage of 25 points over Medina.
More than a third of those that could change their vote are young women (36%, compared to 25% of the total electorate), which suggests that the jury is still out on this changing vote. A week from the elections, the young women are decisively supporting Medina, but their vote is far from being totally committed.
Who is going to vote
Another big question regarding 20 May is about who are going to vote. Among the 72% of the electorate willing to vote, 52% support Medina and 47% support Mejia. The probably voters tend to be older and in the majority are men, a difference from the population in general. Some 83% of Dominicans over 35 are probable voters, compared to just 62% of those less than 35.
Regionally, 79% of the voters in the North are probable voters, which shows that Mejia's base is very enthusiastic to vote, while only 64% of the National District are probable voters. The group of probable voters that is found among young women is the least enthusiastic about going to the ballot boxes on next Sunday. Only 58% of the women less than 35 are probable voters, compared with 66% of their male counterparts.
"Convincing the young women is crucial in this close election," said Jessica Reis, a Senior Associate at Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner, who directed the poll. "They have flirted with Hipolito, but now many have returned to Danilo, but with a lot of them unsure of their vote and a good part not willing to vote anyway, whoever wins over these young women is better positioned for 20 May."
Perception of a negative campaign
The accusations of an increase in the tension and of the acts of violence have become a characteristic of the Dominican presidential campaign in 2012. Nonetheless, the majority of the voters do not see these elections as more negative than the previous campaigns. Close to one-third (31%) feel that it is the same climate as others, and a quarter believe that the campaign is less negative than in the past.
The Mejia followers are more inclined to say that the campaign is negative: a majority (54%) of those that support the PRD candidate say that the campaign is more negative, while just 28% of these that favor Medina feel this is the case.
Technical details
Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner Research, an international polling firm with headquarters in Washington, D.C., in the United States, conducted and analyzed the poll for the Diario Libre. They interviewed 1022 adult Dominicans of which 737 were identified as probable voters. The survey was taken from 2 until 7 May 2012. The margin of error in the 1,022 samples and 737 samples is more or less 3.1 and 3.6% respectively, with a confidence level of 95%.
The last poll carried out by the Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner, for Diario Libre, gives Medina a slight majority of 51% of the votes, five points above Mejia who obtains 46% of the total.
Among Dominicans most inclined to vote, (72% of the total), both candidates go up in the preference of the voters, with 52% for Medina and 47% for Mejia.
Nevertheless, Medina still does not have a sure victory in the first round. Nearly 10% of the electorate could still change their vote and the data of the poll indicates that young women will play an important role in the decision of who will be the next president. IF the was to be a second round, the voting looks identical to the first round, given that the majority of the parties have endorsed the PRD and the PLD candidates.
The gender gap
The race is marked by a significant gender gap between the PLD and the PRD. Medina has an advantage of 18 points among women while Mejia has an 8 point among the men. Median is stronger among Dominican who are better educated, earning the vote of the university graduates by 16 points. Among those with primary and secondary education the vote is statistically a tie.
Geographical differences
Geographically, Medina is ahead in all of the regions, with the exception of the North, where Mejia is based and where the PRD leads 53 to 45%.
The support by Fernandez
The data from the poll suggests that Danilo Medina has been capable of capitalizing on the sustained support by the current President of the Dominican Republic, Leonel Fernandez, whose favorable rating has grown four points since the last Greenberg-Diario Libre poll carried out in March, and his approval rating is now 66%. Among the current voters for Medina, a majority-50%--say that the best reason for supporting Medina is that he will continue the good works of Fernandez.
But Medina has also improves his own grades. A plurality of Dominicans give the PLD candidate a favorable rating (47%), four points better than in March, and more voters think Medina will do a better job handling specific jobs. A majority-53%--say that Medina will do a better job handling the economy, an increase of 5% since the last Greenberg-Diario Libre poll and nine points higher than the percentage that says that Mejia will do a better job with the economy.
Margarita Factor
A large part of Medina's growth has been pushed by young women. In fact, women less than 35 years of age have emerged as a key group in this struggle. At the end of March, young women gave Mejia an advantage of 10 points, but five weeks later this vote has changed strongly in favor of Medina, once again reaching the levels of early March. The vote among young men, as well as that over 35 has remained stable.
The running mate on Medina's ticket, Margarita Cedeño de Fernandez has helped attract young women once again to the PLD. Cedeño de Fernandez has a higher approval rating than either of the two presidential candidates, with a majority of 54% giving her a favorable rating. Among the much desired young women's vote, a robust 64% give the First Lady a favorable rating, 15% higher than Leonel Fernandez and Danilo Medina and 31 points higher than Hipolito Mejia.
The last week counts
Danilo Medina has a five point advantage in the presidential race, but the way in which the candidates close their campaigns can have an effect on the final results.
Eight percent of the electorate reports that they could still change their vote. Medina is positioned to win those that can change their vote: a majority of them are Mejia supporters (55%), while only 33% of the PLD candidate's supporters might change.
Nevertheless, Mejia could court those voters with a strong message of change, particularly focused on the issue of security. Nearly three-quarters of the voters want change, feel pessimistic regarding the direction the country is taking (73% say the Dominican Republic is going in the wrong direction, compared with 49% of the total voters) and they are significantly more worried over crime than the electorate in general (60% says that it is one of their two major worries, compared to 55% of the electorate in general). Among those that might change their vote, Mejia has an advantage of 25 points over Medina.
More than a third of those that could change their vote are young women (36%, compared to 25% of the total electorate), which suggests that the jury is still out on this changing vote. A week from the elections, the young women are decisively supporting Medina, but their vote is far from being totally committed.
Who is going to vote
Another big question regarding 20 May is about who are going to vote. Among the 72% of the electorate willing to vote, 52% support Medina and 47% support Mejia. The probably voters tend to be older and in the majority are men, a difference from the population in general. Some 83% of Dominicans over 35 are probable voters, compared to just 62% of those less than 35.
Regionally, 79% of the voters in the North are probable voters, which shows that Mejia's base is very enthusiastic to vote, while only 64% of the National District are probable voters. The group of probable voters that is found among young women is the least enthusiastic about going to the ballot boxes on next Sunday. Only 58% of the women less than 35 are probable voters, compared with 66% of their male counterparts.
"Convincing the young women is crucial in this close election," said Jessica Reis, a Senior Associate at Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner, who directed the poll. "They have flirted with Hipolito, but now many have returned to Danilo, but with a lot of them unsure of their vote and a good part not willing to vote anyway, whoever wins over these young women is better positioned for 20 May."
Perception of a negative campaign
The accusations of an increase in the tension and of the acts of violence have become a characteristic of the Dominican presidential campaign in 2012. Nonetheless, the majority of the voters do not see these elections as more negative than the previous campaigns. Close to one-third (31%) feel that it is the same climate as others, and a quarter believe that the campaign is less negative than in the past.
The Mejia followers are more inclined to say that the campaign is negative: a majority (54%) of those that support the PRD candidate say that the campaign is more negative, while just 28% of these that favor Medina feel this is the case.
Technical details
Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner Research, an international polling firm with headquarters in Washington, D.C., in the United States, conducted and analyzed the poll for the Diario Libre. They interviewed 1022 adult Dominicans of which 737 were identified as probable voters. The survey was taken from 2 until 7 May 2012. The margin of error in the 1,022 samples and 737 samples is more or less 3.1 and 3.6% respectively, with a confidence level of 95%.
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